US DROUGHT MONITOR / HRW CROPS

Hard wheat suffering worldwide  (18/7/06)
Drought conditions in the worlds major wheat producing countries has pushed both hard red winter and hard red spring prices to their highest levels since July 1996.
USDA updated its hard red spring wheat crop condition ratings this week, confirming that the drought that decimated the hard red winter wheat crop in the Southern and Central Plains has also spread north. Australia and Argentina also are suffering from drought conditions.
The poor growing conditions in the US have led the USDA to forecast a decline in HRS production exceeding 1.1 MMT from last year to 11.6 MMT, 9% lower than last year and 18% below 2004/05. (Farm Futures)

Corn and soybean condition ratings decline (12/7/06)
According to the USDA, 38% of the U.S. soybean crop is blooming as of July 9, compared to 39% a year ago and 28% for the five-year average. 58% of soybeans are rated good to excellent, down 5% from a week ago but up 4% from last year.
63% of the corn crop is called good to excellent, 5% lower than the prior week but 5% higher than a year ago.
72% of the U.S. winter wheat crop has been harvested, compared to 68% on July 9, 2005 and 66% for the five-year average.
For spring wheat, 87% of the crop has headed, compared to 77% last year and 69% on average. Crop condition ratings dropped again this week due to that expanding high pressure ridge. 42% of the crop is rated good to excellent, down 10% from the previous week and 26% less than this time a year ago. (Brownfield)

More than drought affecting wheat yields (7/6/06)
Wheat producers have more than the drought cutting into their yields this year, said two Texas Agricultural Experiment Station researchers.
Dr. Tom Allen, Experiment Station assistant research scientist and plant disease diagnostician, saw more than 150 wheat samples sent to the Great Plains Diagnostic Network lab this growing season, in addition to 400-plus samples the plant pathology staff gathered across the Panhandle.
Ninety-five percent of these samples were diagnosed with the wheat streak mosaic virus. In addition, 50 percent of the samples contained maize red stripe virus, more commonly known as High Plains virus. Both diseases are vectored by the wheat curl mite, Allen said. And so far, there's no treatment for either the viruses or the mite. (Agnews)

Kansas wheat harvest underway amid hot, dry weather (6/6/06)
The first Kansas Wheat Harvest Report of 2006 was released Monday, as cutting in Kansas, the No. 1 U.S. hard red winter wheat growing state, advanced amid dry, hot weather following last week's rain delays.Hard red winter wheat is used to make bread.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has forecast U.S. farmers will produce 715 million bushels of hard red winter wheat in 2006, down from the 2005 harvest of 930 million bushels.
The co-op took in 340,000 bushels of wheat Saturday, he told Kansas Wheat. (Dow Jones)

Precipitation (11/5/06 - 20/5/06)


Heat stressing HRW wheat: USDA (22/5/06)
USDA's Joint Ag Weather Facility says dry weather and near-record to record-high temperatures are promoting rapid fieldwork and crop development in the Plains. On the central and southern High Plains, however, heat is rushing drought-stressed winter wheat toward maturity and maintaining significant stress on pastures and rain-fed summer crops.
In the West, USDA says scattered showers are providing relief from recent record-setting heat along the Pacific Coast. "Elsewhere, unseasonably warm weather favors fieldwork and crop growth, but maintains high irrigation demands and increases the threat of wildfires in the Southwest." (agweb)

Wheat crop conditions poor on the Southern Plains: NASS (17/5/06)
NASS’ Crop Production reported that dry weather conditions in the central and southern Great Plains have resulted in reduced forecast harvested acreage in the HRW growing region (down 3.4 million acres year to year). The yield potential of the crop has also been significantly reduced in Texas and Oklahoma due to continued drought conditions. In Texas, wheat production is forecast at the lowest since 1971, and acres harvested for grain are the lowest since 1925.
Rain showers during the latter portion of April were beneficial, but due to the extent of drought damage, did little to improve the crop. Oklahoma has experienced one of the worst droughts in history. NASS’ also reported wheat jointed and headed in Kansas ahead of the 5-year average (72% versus 38%); however, soil moisture supplies continue to be a major concern, especially in the western portion of the State. 

US Drought Monitor

Precipitation (1/5/06 - 10/5/06)




HRW Wheat Crops/Weather Reports (courtesy of AgWeb) (10/5/06)
Most of the Texas received much needed rain, with over 2 inches falling in most of the state, with some areas recording up to 6 inches.
Oklahoma producers were pleased to see another consecutive week of rain across the State. The East Central district received over two inches of rain, while the Panhandle and North Central district received less than one inch of rain. 
Most areas of Kansas received scattered showers over the week, with amounts varying widely and some areas experiencing severe weather and hail. Spring planting continues to be the major activity. Wheat condition was rated 15 percent very poor, 24 percent poor, 38 percent fair, 22 percent good, and 1 percent excellent.
In Nebraska, most of the state remained dry allowing producers to make significant planting progress, however, cool temperatures and damp soils slowed progress. Wheat conditions rated 7 percent very poor, 12 poor, 34 fair, 42 good, and 5 excellent, below last year. Wheat jointed was at 64 percent, behind 73 percent last year, but ahead of the five year average 58.
Temperatures in Colorado were reported at average across the state last week - a welcome break from the well above average temperatures reported in previous weeks.

Kansas wheat tour sees below-average crop (8/5/06)
Wheat production in Kansas is projected to fall to 319.2 million bushels in 2006 due to drought in the U.S. Plains, crop scouts said Thursday, after a three-day tour. The news caused wheat futures to open sharply higher Friday. The forecast was down 24 percent from the tour's 2005 estimate of 419.76 million bushels and down 16 percent from the state's actual 2005 production of 380 million bushels. (IFB)

U.S. crop planting report (3/5/06)
The USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service reports that as of April 30, 52% of the U.S. corn crop has been planted compared to 49% a year ago and 42% on average. Nationally, 13% of the crop has emerged, compared to 12% a year ago and 11% for the five-year average.
According to the USDA, Soybeans are 10% planted, 2% more than a year ago and 3% ahead of the five-year average. 36% of the winter wheat crop is rated good to excellent, down 3% from a week ago, 26% is called fair, 1% lower, and 38% is called poor to very poor. A year ago, 63% was rated good to excellent, 28% was fair and 9% was poor to very poor. The Southwestern Plains remain the area of greatest concern, with Oklahoma at 76% poor to very poor and Texas' crop rated 80% poor to very poor.

Hard wheat prices reach 2006 highs
Shrinking stocks and grave concerns about the health of the U.S. wheat crop sent cash markets skyrocketing Monday, lifting nearby futures by 10-20 cents a bushel, to leave high-protein varieties at
their highest price levels of 2006.
Much of the market move was weather-related, centering around this week's forecast for warm, dry conditions in the central and southern U.S., which led to lower feed grain prices as traders recognized the strong historical correlation that exists between early planting and high yields. Cash prices paid for HRW wheat have now jumped approximately 50 cents a bushel in just two weeks. (Dow Jones)

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