Strategy of the Week


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15 Mar 2010


Corn futures retreat

Corn capitulated badly this week, pressured lower by the weakness in the wheat market and an inability to sustain new highs ? futures fell 20US?/bu for the week. The market is now trying to find a story to hang on and find some support. To the downside we have the Feb lows in our sights, only 9? lower, which will keep the shorts comfortable in the short-term. This fall wasdespite the fact that crude oil managed to make gains again this week and push above US$81/bl, putting paper margins for the ethanol industry back towards 12 month highs. Add to this cattle prices jumping 3% in the last week and US hog margins at record highs and we should start to find some consumptive demand here. This is what the bulls will be holding out for. Last night the USDA put a dampner on things but reducing demand by more than production and increasing the 2009/10 carryout. With the demand side seeming to finally show some light at the end of the tunnel, the supply side will now be the focus. There is a massive divergence in opinions over what the 2010 corn crop will be. Will the snow pack cause flooding and late planting or will it actually aid soil moisture? Will there be wheat acres available to switch to corn and what about the split between corn and beans? As always, corn supply will remain volatile and provide both sides of the market with opportunities going forward.